Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo
Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo
SA sees robust agricultural exports
I am starting to believe that South Africa’s 2024 agricultural exports may reach a new record high and surpass the 2023 record level of US$13, 2 billion. The better prices and output in various fruits, red meat, wool, and wine will be the major driver of the improvement in exports…
There is rising optimism in South Africa’s farming sector
We continue to observe the rising optimism in South Africa’s farming and agribusiness sectors. For example, the Agbiz/IDC Agribusiness Confidence Index (ACI), a sentiment indicator in the sector, increased by 10 points from Q3 to 58 in Q4. This is the second consecutive improvement, placing the ACI at its highest…
South Africa eases a path for possible maize imports from the US
South Africa’s decision to ease possible maize imports from the U.S. is not necessarily bad. It is a “safety option” in recognition that our white maize supplies are tight. We also face strong demand from broader Southern Africa, whose maize production is down massively because of the drought earlier this…
The easing agricultural trade friction in SACU is crucial
The Southern African region has experienced agricultural trade friction in the past few years. Namibia and Botswana placed a ban on the imports of South African vegetables and citrus. Simply put, the rationale of both Namibia and Botswana was that the import ban ensures that their domestic producers are not…
SA's agricultural employment improves
While the 2023-24 mid-summer drought has been the central theme of the downbeat performance of South Africa's agriculture this year, we see a welcome positive change in the jobs data. Statistics South Africa data show that primary agriculture employment improved by 4% from the previous quarter to 935k jobs in…
South African farmers intend to plant slightly bigger area for grains this new season
After a challenging 2023-24 summer crop season, which saw South Africa's grains and oilseeds production falling by 24% year-on-year to 15,39 million tonnes, the recovery period may be in sight. The data released by the Crop Estimates Committee on October 29 shows that South African farmers intend to plant 4,47…
Government and industry's efforts to control animal disease spread must be lauded
The past three years have been challenging for South Africa's livestock and poultry industry because of the spread of animal diseases. Throughout this period, we have had various cases of foot-and-mouth disease in cattle, African swine fever in pigs, and avian influenza in poultry. While animal disease outbreaks are not…
There is reason to be optimistic about SA’s 2024-25 maize production season
I've been one of the people who have been vocal about the positive prospects for the 2024-25 agricultural season in South Africa, leaning of expected La Nina rains. I continue to remain optimistic about the upcoming season. But the reality is that we may have a late season. The good…
SA’s immense responsibility of stabilizing Southern Africa’s food security
South Africa’s agriculture and agribusiness sectors have a broader responsibility for food security beyond our borders. The Southern Africa region leans heavily on South Africa for food supplies. This is clear from the observation of South Africa’s agricultural exports. The country exported about US$13,2 billion of agricultural and processed food…
South Africa must push agricultural exports within BRICS
South Africa has an export-led agricultural sector, with exports having been a major catalyst in the sector’s growth over the past three decades. But rising geopolitical tensions have introduced new risks, leading to an increased need for the country to diversify its export agricultural markets. In this podcast, we argue…
In search for optimism in South Africa's agriculture
South Africa's agriculture is showing signs of improving optimism since the start of the Government of the National Unity (GNU), which has fueled confidence levels about the path forward. The Agbiz/IDC Agribusiness Confidence Index (ACI), a sentiment indicator about business conditions in the sector, has risen from its low levels…
There is reason to be optimistic about SA's 2024-25 summer crop season
It is perhaps a reasonable choice to remain optimistic about the upcoming 2024-25 summer season in South Africa's agriculture. The global weather forecasters paint encouraging prospects of weather conditions. For example, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) at Columbia University continue…
The 2024 mid-summer drought continues to weigh on the summer crop harvest
South Africa is on its eighth summer grain and oilseeds production forecast for the 2023-24 season. There are two more monthly reports to follow. Given that we are at the tail end of the season and will soon be in the optimal planting window for the 2024-25 production season from…
What message should SA agriculture take to Kazan for the BRICS+ summit
South Africa's agricultural growth in the first thirty years of the democratic era has been supported, among other things, by two pivotal interventions. The first was a deliberate and concerted strategy to invest in genetics for crops, horticulture, and livestock. The second intervention was a strong push to expand export…
Will the 2024-25 season be a recovery period for SA agriculture?
By this time next month, the fields across the eastern regions of South Africa will likely be busy. Farmers will be tilling the land for the 2024-25 summer grains and oilseed production season in mid-October. It will be another month before the country's western regions start till the land, from…
South Africa must deepen agricultural trade with China
It is hard to discuss global agriculture without mentioning China. The country is a dominant player in exports and imports of agricultural products. In 2023, China was a leading agricultural importer, accounting for 11% of global agricultural imports. Trailing China was the US, Germany, Netherlands, the UK, France and Japan…
South Africa's agricultural export growth cooled off in the second quarter of 2024
After the sharp increase in the first quarter of 2024, South Africa's agricultural exports fell slightly on a year-on-year (y/y) basis in the second quarter. According to data from Trade Map, the country's agricultural exports were at US$3.37bn in the second quarter, a 0,1% decline relative to the same period…
Reflections on women's participation in South Africa's agriculture
On various occasions, I have highlighted South Africa's agricultural sector's gains in the first three decades of democracy. The sector has more than doubled in value and volume terms. Better seed varieties in crops, vegetables, and fruits, as well as improved genetics in livestock and poultry, have, among other interventions,…
SA farm jobs remain well above the long term averages
The effects of the recent El Niño-induced mid-summer drought are starting to show in South Africa's agricultural jobs data. For example, the Quarterly Labour Force Survey data shows that employment in primary agriculture was down 5% quarter-on-quarter to 896k in the second quarter of 2024. From an annual basis perspective,…
South Africa's wheat crop looks promising from a distance
On August 10, we drove across the Swartland region of the Western Cape from the Karoo side of the Northern Cape. As we entered the Western Cape, I couldn't miss the excellent sight of the wheat fields from a distance. And yes, I appreciate that the Western Cape has received…