Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo
Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo
South Africa sees strong agricultural machinery sales in April, but the path ahead is uncertain
Agricultural machinery sales remain robust in South Africa, supported by orders some farmers likely placed before the current global challenges. The farmers’ finances over the past few months were boosted by the ample harvest in the 2024-25 season, on the back of beneficial La Niña rains. Therefore, in our interpretation…
Two points about the uncertain weather outlook and its impact on South Africa’s agriculture over the coming months
Firstly, there’s a growing likelihood that we’re entering the onset of an El Niño event. This will likely begin around October 2027, which is the start of the 2026-27 summer season. The South African Weather Service (SAWS) highlighted this in their report today, 1 May 2026. Depending on the severity…
Canola production in South Africa may reach a fresh high in 2026-27
Many agricultural crops and value chains have shown dramatic progress in recent years. They should serve as an inspiration for further growth of this sector. I often write about South Africa's soybean success story, whose production increased from 67,700 tonnes in the 1993-94 production season to an expected record harvest…
Will the current rains distort grain quality in South Africa?
We are late in the 2025-26 summer grains and oilseed season. Farmers in some regions have already started harvesting the crop. South Africa is set to have its largest grain harvest on record, about 20.8 million tonnes. But will the recent rains not cause quality issues? Or will they help…
Are cooling agricultural equipment sales in South Africa a temporary blip?
Last week, the South African Agricultural Machinery Association released its monthly agricultural machinery sales report for March 2026. To some observers of the South African agricultural sector, the report signalled a change from the long period of strong tractor and combine harvesters sales to a much slower pace. Tractor sales…
The Western Cape farmers face an immediate challenge from the Middle East war
In these times of conversations about the impact of high fuel and fertiliser prices on agriculture, the region of South Africa I find myself thinking about the most right now is the Western Cape. The Western Cape produces much of our winter crops: half of South Africa’s winter wheat, and…
The African continent is at the heart of South Africa’s agricultural export success
When we consider exports in South Africa’s agriculture, we typically overlook the importance of the African continent. Such an approach is wrong; the continent is central to our agricultural export success so far. In 2025, South Africa’s agriculture exported a record US$15.1 billion, up 10% from a year ago. Nearly…
The Middle East remains a key potential export market for South Africa’s agriculture
South Africa's agricultural exports to the Middle East, worth US$1.3 billion in 2025, or 8% of overall agricultural exports, are at risk from this crisis. Shipping costs are rising. Agricultural businesses that export to the Middle East will now be exploring whether other markets can absorb their products. South Africa's…
Is it not too soon to be considering food price increases in South Africa?
South Africa indeed transports much of its agriculture and food products by road. For example, 80% of South African staple grain products are transported by road. We see similar volumes in other commodities. Agricultural products are also processed in certain regions and then transported to various consumption points. This means…
South Africa will likely miss its maize export forecast for the 2025-26 marketing year
South Africa may miss its maize export forecast of 2.4 million tonnes for the 2025-26 marketing year, which ends in April. The exports so far are at 1.7 million tonnes as of the first week of March 2026. Given a softer weekly export pace, it is unlikely that the country…
Why are South African farmers feeling downbeat about business conditions in the country?
A day after we received robust agricultural GDP data, showing that the sector’s gross value added grew by 17.4% year-on-year in 2025, following a -8.4% year-on-year contraction in 2024, some may wonder why the sentiment indicators suggest a subdued mood. In data released on March 11, we learned that after…
How the Middle East issues will likely impact South Africa's agriculture
We are watching the worrying developments in the Middle East. The region is key to South Africa's agriculture, both for exports and for its influence on oil and gas prices. Listen to the podcast for our early impression.
South Africa’s agricultural outlook for 2026 remains positive
We are in another favourable agricultural season in South Africa, with favourable rains that enabled the farmers to plant and supported the grazing veld for the livestock industry. This builds on a better agricultural performance in 2025, a year of La Niña rains that supported the sector. The only significant…
SA farmers are upbeat about business conditions in the sector
After falling for two consecutive quarters, the Agbiz/IDC Agribusiness Confidence Index (ACI) increased by 5 points to 67 in Q4 2025. Favourable weather conditions, strong exports throughout the year on the back of ample grains, oilseeds, and horticulture harvests, as well as better port efficiencies, are among the key drivers…
SA agricultural conditions
We continue to receive encouraging notes about the prospects of La Niña in the 2025-26 summer season. The La Niña-induced rains will help support field crops, horticulture, and grazing veld for livestock. The farmers are optimistic and plan to increase area plantings, primarily of field crops. One aspect of the…
The G20 places a spotlight on the global hunger problem
About 720 million people continued to experience hunger in 2024, and 2.6 billion people were unable to afford healthy diets. It is this reality that compelled the G20 Leaders' Declaration in Johannesburg to shine a spotlight on global food insecurity challenges correctly. Countries can explore many interventions to resolve this…
The rainy weather is an excellent start to the 2025-26 agricultural season in South Africa
Various regions of South Africa have started receiving the 2025-26 summer rains. The rains will help ensure that the agricultural season begins on time and that we have excellent production conditions. The farmers are relatively optimistic, having suggested that they intend to plant 4.5 million hectares of summer grains and…
The US recent tariff modification may be favourable for some SA agricultural industries
The U.S. decision to modify its reciprocal tariffs and exempt some food products is a positive step towards easing agricultural trade friction, which is costly to both exporting countries and U.S. consumers. The exempted products include coffee and tea, fruit juices, cocoa, and spices, as well as avocados, bananas, coconuts,…
The unforgiving winters and summers of the beautiful Karoo region of South Africa
The Karoo region of South Africa experiences intense weather conditions, with often extremely hot summers and bitterly cold winters. It is these extreme weather conditions that nurture the distinct vegetation of the region, which is a source of feed for the sheep industry there. The Karoo lamb has a unique…
The African governments must help farmers
The African government must do everything possible to assist farmers during the 2025-26 production season. In the past, when confronted with disasters and food shortages, we had relied on organisations such as the World Food Programme for assistance. This time around, the World Food Programme is no longer fit to…