SA interest rates could see biggest hike since 2016 this week.
Loading player...
We expect the SA Reserve Bank (SARB) to hike its policy rate by 50 basis points – its largest hike since January 2016 – to 4.75% on Thursday. While high levels of uncertainty and a weak South African economy suggest that the decision is unlikely to be unanimous, we expect a stronger majority (4:1) than before to be in favour of front-loading hikes.
The SARB is unlikely to make large adjustments to its growth or output gap estimates presented in its March forecasts, although it could revise down slightly its 2.0% 2022 GDP growth forecast in response to the April floods in KwaZulu-Natal and resultant damage to infrastructure and port delays.
The SARB is unlikely to make large adjustments to its growth or output gap estimates presented in its March forecasts, although it could revise down slightly its 2.0% 2022 GDP growth forecast in response to the April floods in KwaZulu-Natal and resultant damage to infrastructure and port delays.
