Food inflation eases further, but recent weather-induced production challenges remain a concern.
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GUEST - Paul Makube- FNB Commercial's senior agricultural economist
The latest export estimates from the Citrus Growers' Association of Southern Africa (CGA) showed a further reduction in orange exports for the 2024 season underpinned by a combination of inclement weather in the production areas and the increased competition from the juicing market.
Weather conditions have not been favourable with drier and warmer conditions reducing fruit sizes, followed recently by freezing conditions in some areas. Surging international orange juice prices due to production cuts in the US and Brazil spurred the recent upswing in demand for the juicing market locally. Consequently, orange juice prices have increased by 34% since the start of 2024 at US432/ pound (lbs) after reaching an all-time high of US486/ lbs during May 2024.
On the export side, the CGA expects Navel orange volumes at 21 million (15kg) cartons relative to the opening seasonal estimate of 25.7 million cartons. For Valencias, the new estimate is 51.6 million cartons which is down by 11% from the original estimate for the season with Letsitele, Hoedspruit and the Senwes (Marble Hall and Groblersdal) areas being the biggest contributors to the reduced estimate.
The latest export estimates from the Citrus Growers' Association of Southern Africa (CGA) showed a further reduction in orange exports for the 2024 season underpinned by a combination of inclement weather in the production areas and the increased competition from the juicing market.
Weather conditions have not been favourable with drier and warmer conditions reducing fruit sizes, followed recently by freezing conditions in some areas. Surging international orange juice prices due to production cuts in the US and Brazil spurred the recent upswing in demand for the juicing market locally. Consequently, orange juice prices have increased by 34% since the start of 2024 at US432/ pound (lbs) after reaching an all-time high of US486/ lbs during May 2024.
On the export side, the CGA expects Navel orange volumes at 21 million (15kg) cartons relative to the opening seasonal estimate of 25.7 million cartons. For Valencias, the new estimate is 51.6 million cartons which is down by 11% from the original estimate for the season with Letsitele, Hoedspruit and the Senwes (Marble Hall and Groblersdal) areas being the biggest contributors to the reduced estimate.
