Investec Investec Focus Radio SA

NOW Ep 130 | Global economy: mid-year health check

Loading player...
The global economy has held up but that does not mean risk has faded.
At the halfway point of 2026, growth has been stronger than feared and inflation has cooled, but not enough. Central banks remain cautious while energy markets are still exposed to Middle East disruption.

For South Africa, the global backdrop feeds directly into the rand, inflation, capital flows, commodity prices and the Reserve Bank’s room to move.

In the latest episode of No Ordinary Wednesday, Jeremy Maggs speaks to Investec economists Ryan Djajasaputra and Annabel Bishop about what could shape the second half of the year.

They discuss global growth, interest rates, fiscal credibility, South Africa’s investment case and the under appreciated risk of El Niño.
Read more on www.investec.com/now

Key highlights:

00:00 - Introduction
01:34 - Why inflation and interest rates surprised markets
04:26 - Global growth: Resilience amid uncertainty
06:13 - What global trends mean for South Africa
09:10 - South Africa's structural growth challenges
10:46 - Rethinking emerging markets
14:08 - Fiscal policy, debt and investor confidence
18:59 - The biggest global and local risks ahead
22:06 - South Africa's outlook: Risks and opportunities
24:57 - The key global indicators to watch
26:16 - South Africa's economic outlook
Chapters
  • 00:00 Introduction
  • 01:34 Why inflation and interest rates surprised markets
  • 04:26 Global growth: Resilience amid uncertainty
  • 06:13 What global trends mean for South Africa
  • 09:10 South Africa's structural growth challenges
  • 10:46 Rethinking emerging markets
  • 14:08 Fiscal policy, debt and investor confidence
  • 18:59 The biggest global and local risks ahead
  • 22:06 South Africa's outlook: Risks and opportunities
  • 24:57 The key global indicators to watch
  • 26:16 South Africa's economic outlook
1 Jul English South Africa Business · Investing

Other recent episodes

No Ordinary Wednesday | The signals from oil, bonds and inflation

Oil, bond yields and inflation are sending a more cautious signal on the global outlook. Growth has held up better than expected. But energy markets remain tight, long-term borrowing costs are rising, and central banks are weighing the risk of another inflation shock. In the latest No Ordinary Wednesday, Ellie…
8 Sep 17 min

Macro Monday Ep130: Crude prices, US jobs place focus on interest rates

Crude oil prices have risen over 20% in the last month, and this problem seems unlikely to be resolved quickly: prediction markets put only a 30% likelihood of normal flows through the Strait of Hormuz by December. Chris Holdsworth, Global Chief Investment Officer, Investec Investment Management says with services inflation…
7 Sep 8 min

Macro Monday Ep129: Warsh’s hawkish speech

New Fed chief Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish speech at the Jackson Hole symposium of central bankers on Friday, leading to a stronger US dollar and increased expectations of rate hikes this year and next year. Investec Investment Management’s Investment Strategist Osagyefo Mazwai examines what this means for the US…
31 Aug 9 min

No Ordinary Wednesday | The economics of tourism in SA

South Africa’s growth challenge is shifting from reform to delivery. Tourism is part of that test. International arrivals rose 12.3% in the first half of 2026. And phase III of the government-business Partnership now puts the sector firmly on the growth agenda, with a focus on air access, visas, safety…
25 Aug 12 min

Everything Counts | Episode 54: Protecting property wealth

Property is often seen as one of the more reliable ways to build long-term wealth. It’s tangible, familiar and, for many South Africans, an important part of their financial plan. But investing in property comes with risks that can be easy to overlook, from hidden costs and changing rental yields…
25 Aug 28 min
All episodes