Southern Africa’s agriculture is struggling with persistent dryness and extreme heatwave

South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe have recently published reports indicating a potential decline in grain harvest because of intense El Niño-induced dryness. These developments could put the entire Southern African maize supply chain at risk, with Zambia and South Africa hard hit by heatwaves and dryness. The neighbouring small producers such as Zimbabwe, Botswana, Lesotho and Namibia are also struggling with dryness.

Given that South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe are among the largest maize producers within the Southern Africa region, a potential decline in the harvest in these countries suggests there could be an increase in the risk of food insecurity. This would necessitate imports to meet the shortfall in the region’s maize supplies.

The dryness in an El Niño event is not unexpected in the Southern Africa region as this weather phenomenon is typically accompanied by dryness. The year started favourably, with excellent rains. But the dryness intensified from the end of January. Major damage has been caused to crops since then. The unusual pattern may be part of the broader climate change challenges.

Based on research into grains markets in the region, and recent observations from our fieldwork across the summer crop-growing regions of South Africa, it is clear that the region faces a difficult time ahead.

My writing on agricultural economic matters is available on my blog: https://wandilesihlobo.com/

Podcast production by: Nelisiwe Tshabalala, Lwandiso Gwarubana, Richard Humphries, and Sam Mkokeli